Fanspeak Mock Draft 1.19: First-round commerce prospects – who will transfer up?

Fanspeak Mock Draft 1.19: First-round trade possibilities – who will move up?

Whereas we’re nonetheless ready on phrase from a number of Georgia prospects, the remainder of the underclassman draft intentions are lastly in, and now we all know the draft order for a lot of the first spherical.

In different phrases, it’s time to look at commerce prospects.

Who wants a QB?

At the very least 5 groups want to return out of the primary spherical with a brand new sign caller, however solely 4 QBs are ranked within the top-32 within the newest Fanspeak-Jake Rigdon huge board.

In the meantime, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson will probably be an unrestricted free agent, Las Vegas is probably going going to commerce Derek Carr, and each Tom Brady of Tampa Bay and Aaron Rodgers of Inexperienced Bay might change groups subsequent season. And don’t overlook about San Francisco’s surplus of QBs – anticipate the 49ers to maneuver at the least considered one of them through commerce.

Needs to be the No. 1 precedence:

Houston, Indianapolis, Carolina, Washington, Las Vegas, New Orleans

Would possibly want one:

Seattle, Detroit, Denver, Minnesota

If issues fell proper …:

Atlanta, Tennessee, Tampa Bay

Draft evaluation:

Dane Brugler of The Athletic just lately launched his two-round mock draft, and he has Chicago and Indianapolis swapping picks, with the Colts additionally giving up a second rounder and a first-round choose subsequent 12 months. Nonetheless, that’s an extremely steep value – if Indianapolis merely stands pat, then it would assure them a shot at both Bryce Younger of Alabama, C.J. Stroud of Ohio State, Will Levis of Kentucky and even Florida’s Anthony Richardson – and all include flaws. Possibly Indianapolis makes that commerce for a QB prospect on the extent of a Trevor Lawrence, however the 2023 quartet isn’t on that degree.

You can also make the identical argument for Seattle in the event that they resolve to maneuver on from unrestricted free agent Geno Smith (which appears unlikely). Certain, there’s an opportunity that Chicago and Arizona commerce out of the highest 5 and a QB goes with the primary 4 picks. However that’s unlikely.

The crew(s) probably to maneuver up within the draft:

Carolina is present process a training change – don’t you suppose that coach would like to have a brand new QB beneath heart? Bear in mind, the Panthers picked up an additional second-rounder within the Christian McCaffrey commerce. A swap of first-round picks with Arizona, plus Carolina’s two second rounders, can be sufficient to maneuver as much as No. 3.

With that stated, Carolina might need to sweeten the deal if one other crew makes a greater provide. Would the Cardinals take into account a deal for the Panthers first spherical picks this 12 months and subsequent, plus one of many Panthers’ two second-rounders?

You by no means know …

Each Washington and Minnesota might provide a deal Chicago or Arizona can’t refuse, though it could be expensive. Of the 2 groups, although, the Vikings are the probably to stand-pat, because it’s arduous to think about a crew that went 13-4 handy the reigns over to a rookie QB, particularly with a veteran QB already on the roster.

Washington, then again, went 8-8-1 and doesn’t have a QB on the roster on the identical degree as Minnesota’s Kurt Cousins. Swapping the No. 16 choose with Arizona would price the Commanders their second-round choose this 12 months and at the least subsequent season’s first-round choose – if no more.

Nonetheless, Washington seems near contending for a playoff spot, and a brand new QB might push them excessive.

May somebody goal the highest 2 defensive gamers?

Though draft analysts peg Chicago as a crew more likely to commerce its choose, doing so can be extraordinarily expensive for any crew seeking to transfer up. For starters, it’s going to take at the least three picks within the 2023 draft to maneuver as much as the No. 1 general spot and at the least yet another future first-rounder tossed in – possibly two if it’s a crew selecting late within the first spherical.

Once more, a QB-starved crew would possibly take into account making a daring transfer like that if the quartet of high QBs have been rated larger.

Plus, the highest prospects within the 2023 draft are usually seen as a notch under the prospects from earlier drafts. From the most recent Walter Soccer Scorching Press report: “This 12 months, groups really feel the 2023 NFL Draft lacks elite expertise general. Sources from seven completely different NFL groups advised the one participant who had obtained an elite grade was Texas operating again Bijan Robinson.”

Robinson stays the No. 1 ranked participant within the Rigdon huge board.

That doesn’t imply groups don’t covet Alabama go rusher Will Anderson or Georgia defensive lineman Jalen Carter, the highest two defensive gamers on this draft. However the fee to maneuver into the highest 5 is likely to be an excessive amount of for some groups. For instance, if Dallas wished to maneuver up from No. 26 to No. 3, it could take at the least the Cowboys’ first three picks (26, 59, 91) and would probably require the crew’s first two picks in 2024, in accordance with Calculator Soup. Even then, Dallas would nonetheless come away on high.

Nonetheless, there’s one crew that hasn’t shied away from making splashy strikes within the draft: Philadelphia. And, because it seems, the Eagles have sufficient property to tug it off.

Shifting as much as the No. 1 spot, although, would possibly nonetheless show to be too prohibitive. Shifting as much as the third spot occupied by Arizona, although, is doable.

It will require each of Philadelphia’s two first-round picks (10 and 31) and its choose within the second spherical (63) to make the deal work numbers-wise. Even then, the Eagles might need to toss in a first- or second-round choose in 2024 if Arizona has different provides.

Granted, defensive position isn’t Philadelphia’s biggest offseason want. In truth, you possibly can make the argument that the Eagles boast one of the best DL within the league. And so they have some huge free agent choices looming, together with at linebacker and at cornerback.

Nonetheless, defensive linemen Fletcher Cox, Javon Hargrave, Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph and go rushers Brandon Graham and Robert Quinn will all be UFAs on the finish of the season.

It sounds just like the Eagles might use both Anderson or Carter.

Spherical 1

1. Chicago Bears: Edge Will Anderson, Alabama

Buying and selling down is simpler stated than completed. Groups must surrender an enormous draft haul to maneuver as much as this spot, however none of this 12 months’s high prospects stack as much as earlier 12 months’s high prospects. So why not stand pat and take a possible Professional Bowl go rusher at a place of want?

2. Houston Texans: QB Bryce Younger, Alabama

The Younger-to-Houston calls are getting louder . Now the crew wants so as to add some offensive linemen to guard Younger, and extra expertise at receiver. And tight finish. And on protection. Mainly, Houston wants assist in every single place, so snagging your QB of the long run is a good place to start out.

3. Philadelphia Eagles (TRADE with AZ): DL Jalen Carter, Georgia

Nearly as good as Jordan Davis has been his rookie 12 months, his former Georgia teammate Carter is taken into account an excellent higher prospect. Don’t overlook: Philadelphia moved up two spots final 12 months to take Davis at choose No. 13 general.

4. Indianapolis Colts: QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State

This might be a dream state of affairs for Indianapolis: They get to choose one of many high QBs with out giving up any draft property.

5. Las Vegas Raiders (TRADE with SEA): QB Will Levis, Kentucky

Tampa Bay remains to be seen as Tom Brady’s high touchdown spot in 2023, however Las Vegas is a detailed second, in accordance with the most recent betting odds. Why not pair the long run Corridor of Famer with the rookie Levis? Doing so would give Raiders followers hope past the 2023 season.

6. Carolina Panthers (TRADE with DET): QB Anthony Richardson, Florida

May Carolina keep at No. 9 and hope Richardson falls to them? In fact, however that will be extraordinarily dangerous. Certain, taking Richardson this excessive additionally comes with dangers, however the brand new teaching workers would probably wish to work with “their” man. In addition to, numbers-wise, all Carolina must give as much as swap picks with Detroit is their second of two second-round picks (61).

7. Seattle Seahawks (from LV through DEN): Edge Myles Murphy, Clemson

Seattle has frolicked retooling its defensive position in recent times, however, because the playoff loss to San Francisco exhibits, extra expertise is required – and Murphy has elite traits, measurement and athleticism.

8. Atlanta Falcons: RB Bijan Robinson, Texas

Atlanta followers gained’t like this choose, however Robinson can be one of the best present the Falcons might give younger QB Desmond Ridder, who the crew drafted within the third spherical final 12 months.

9. Detroit Lions (TRADE with CAR through LA Rams): CB Cam Smith, South Carolina

Speak about fortunate. Not solely would Detroit choose up an additional excessive third-round choose by swapping spots with Carolina within the first spherical, the Lions would even have their choose of the highest CBs – a place of want – in the event that they pull off this commerce.

10. Arizona Cardinals (TRADE with PHL through NO): CB Joey Porter Jr., Penn State

Porter is lengthy, bodily and has nice cowl expertise – mainly, every part Arizona is searching for in a cornerback.

11. Tennessee Titans: OT Paris Johnson, Ohio State

There’s hypothesis that LT Taylor Lewan might be a cap reduce. Fortunately, Tennessee would have its choose of the highest OTs on this state of affairs. The final time Nicholas Petit-Frere, the crew’s third-round choose in 2022, performed with Johnson, Petit-Frere was the Buckeyes’ left deal with and Johnson was the left guard. Now, Petit-Frere is the Titans’ beginning proper deal with, whereas Johnson might be inserted as Lewan’s substitute at LT or be moved to protect if Lewan re-signs.

12. Houston Texans (from CLE): OT Broderick Jones, Georgia

You may make the argument right here for a high go catcher, however these receiver numbers will probably be down if the QB doesn’t have any time to throw.

13. NY Jets: OT Peter Skoronski, Northwestern

Possibly Mekhi Becton comes again from harm and performs like he did as a rookie in 2020. And possibly Max Mitchell, the crew’s fourth-round choose in 2022, or one other offensive lineman steps up subsequent season. However that’s too many “maybes.” In addition to, Skoronski can play both guard or deal with.

14. New England Patriots: S Brian Department, Alabama

New England took Kyle Dugger within the first spherical in 2020. Department is an excellent higher prospect. Security isn’t an enormous want, however Department is likely one of the high gamers within the draft, plus the Patriots might lose a number of members of the secondary to free company.

15. Inexperienced Bay Packers: WR Quentin Johnston, TCU

Inexperienced Bay takes a receiver within the first one 12 months after taking Christian Watson within the second spherical – and Johnston is the higher prospect of the 2. If Watson completed with a decent 41 receptions for 611 yards and seven TDs as a rookie, think about what Rodgers can do with a participant like Johnston?

16. Washington Commanders: CB Christian Gonzalez, Oregon

Anticipate Washington to go after a QB through commerce or free company if it may well’t land one of many high 4 on this draft. In any other case, this choose might come right down to a cornerback or Clemson DL Bryan Bresee, who remains to be accessible.

“If they preserve free agent defensive lineman Daron Payne, they’ll most likely look towards nook on protection or possibly even offense line,” stated Steve Shoup, co-owner of Fanspeak.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers: DL Bryan Bresee, Clemson

Don’t be shocked if Pittsburgh trades out of this choose, as the highest OTs are off the board and one of the best heart is extra of a Day 2-type of prospect. In any other case, Jeff Hartman of SB Nation’s Behind the Metal Curtain is true: Pittsburgh wants a defensive lineman.

18. Detroit Lions: TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame

After buying and selling T.J. Hockenson, second-year participant Brock Wright led the Lions tight ends with 18 receptions for 216 yards and 4 TDs. Contemplate Wright’s former Notre Dame teammate Mayer a major improve.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama

The loss to Dallas uncovered a obtrusive weak point: Tampa Bay’s operating recreation, or lack thereof. Leonard Fournette might be a possible cap casualty. The crew might look to improve its OL at this spot, too, however that will be a little bit of a attain. Gibbs, although, is a home-run hitter – there’s no means Brady throws 60-plus passes in a recreation with Gibbs operating the ball.

20. Seattle Seahawks: G O’Cyrus Torrence, Florida

Drafting a guard within the first spherical is like getting socks for Christmas. Nonetheless, reducing Gabe Jackson within the offseason would save the crew $6.5 million. Jackson had a ho-hum 55 PFF grade this season, which means, the 2014 third-rounder may be very replaceable, and Torrence is one of the best inside lineman within the draft.

21. LA Chargers: WR Jordan Addison, USC

Age and accidents make receiver considered one of, if not the highest precedence for Los Angeles.

Jordan Addison has extraordinarily environment friendly route break transitions and makes use of his pace very properly

— Jake Schyvinck (@JakeNFLDraft) January 16, 2023

22. Baltimore Ravens: CB Devon Witherspoon, Illinois

CB Marcus Peters is now an unrestricted free agent and, at age 30, nonetheless has a number of good years left in him. However he would additionally probably command a fairly hefty contract. Adam H. Beasley of Professional Soccer Community says “

23. Minnesota Vikings: Edge Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech

Wilson is a candidate to slip on this draft. Granted, loads of groups might use a go rusher with Wilson’s elite traits, however not lots of them function out of a 4-3 protection the place his skills are greatest utilized. In any other case, Wilson might play as a 5-tech in a 3-4 protection, however these gamers usually go later within the draft, ala Texas A&M’s DeMarvin Leal, who was drafted by Pittsburgh final 12 months with the No. 84 general choose. However, as Shoup factors out, generally elite go rushers fall within the draft, similar to Florida State’s Jermaine Johnson, who was taken by the Jets with the No. 26 general choose in 2022.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars: CB Deonte Banks, Maryland

Anticipate Banks to rise within the weeks and months to return. Jacksonville wants a greater boundary CB to bookend with Tyson Campbell. The Athletic’s Brugler known as Banks a “cover-and-clobber” CB with “rangy pace and ball expertise.”

25. NY Giants: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State

New York desperately wants receiver assist. Will the Giants get the 2021 model of JSN or the 2022 model that missed a lot of the season with a nagging hamstring harm?

26. Dallas Cowboys: CB Kelee Ringo, Georgia

Whereas the crew wants assist at receiver and will use one other piece alongside the offensive line, the truth that Dallas performed recently-signed-off-the-street CB Xavier Rhodes 24 snaps in its playoff win over Tampa Bay tells you every part it’s worthwhile to know in regards to the crew’s high offseason precedence. The conventional starter, Anthony Brown, is out for the 12 months and will probably be an UFA, whereas former starter Jourdan Lewis, additionally out for the 12 months, will hit free company the next 12 months. That’s compelled the crew to start out rookie fifth-rounder DaRon Bland on the surface, regardless of flourishing as Lewis’ substitute at slot nook. And whereas Ringo has seen his draft inventory dip this season, he nonetheless comes with elite athletic traits.

“I like Ringo late within the first spherical,” PFF’s Marcus Mosher stated in an interview with Fanspeak. “I don’t like him within the top-10.”

27. Cincinnati Bengals: Edge Lukas Van Ness, Iowa

Query: What do you do when your crew is infamous for its small scouting division? Reply: Draft the most important title accessible. That might be Van Ness, ranked No. 12 within the Rigdon huge board. Van Ness is much from an enormous want – beginning go rushers Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard are beneath management for a number of extra years – whereas beginning CB Eli Apple and FS Jessie Bates are about to grow to be unrestricted. And don’t overlook in regards to the offensive line, which has been decimated by accidents, significantly at deal with. One of the best-remaining prospect at any of these positions must be in play late within the first spherical. Van Ness, although, is clearly one of the best participant accessible. And don’t be fooled by his modest stats in 2022 — although he didn’t begin this season and has a restricted resume, draft analysts are nonetheless extraordinarily excessive on him. Plus, at 6-foot-5, 275-pounds, the 21-year-old redshirt sophomore might kick inside on passing downs.

28. Denver Broncos (from SF): OT Darnell Wright, Tennessee

Denver desperately wants assist alongside the offensive line – possibly QB Russell Wilson will carry out higher if he’s not operating for his life.

29. Buffalo Payments: WR Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee

The truth that recently-signed Cole Beasley is receiving taking part in time in the course of the playoffs tells you the place Buffalo stands with its receiver depth.

30. Kansas Metropolis Chiefs: OT Dawand Jones, Ohio State

The Chiefs have some huge choices on offense developing in free company, as each beginning OTs and two of the three beginning receivers will grow to be unrestricted. Nonetheless, the crew has intriguing younger prospects at receiver, however the proverbial cabinet is comparatively naked at offensive deal with, even when the crew re-signs considered one of Orlando Brown or Andrew Wylie. Enter the huge 6-foot-8, 360-pound redshirt sophomore Jones. If he can present in the course of the Mix that he’s not your typical, lumbering large, then Jones might shoot up draft boards.

31. Arizona Cardinals (TRADE with PHL): OT Cody Mauch, North Dakota State

Josh Jones, the crew’s third-round pick of Houston in 2020, must be a candidate for “most improved participant.” After barely seeing the sector his rookie 12 months, and a tough, penalty-filled second season, Jones solidified the all-important left deal with place this 12 months and completed with a PFF grade of 75.8. He’s going to be even busier in 2023. Jones is the one beginning offensive lineman for Arizona assured of returning subsequent season, as the opposite 4 starters are set to grow to be unrestricted free brokers. Is Mauch a little bit of a attain right here? Possibly so, however the crew might at all times slide him inside, then draft a deal with like Oklahoma’s Anton Harrison with its first choose of the second spherical and nonetheless have Philadelphia’s late second-round choose to take a receiver or cornerback.

Who’s left:

Los Angeles Rams, second spherical: OT Jaelyn Duncan, Maryland

New Orleans Saints, second spherical: QB Tanner McKee, Stanford

Cleveland Browns, second spherical: Edge Zach Harrison, Ohio State

Miami Dolphins, second spherical: RB Devon Achane, Texas A&M

San Francisco, third spherical: RB Kendre Miller, TCU


* Draft order courtesy of Tankathon.

** Miami misplaced its first-round choose as a consequence of tampering prices.

Jake Rigdon (@jrigdon73) covers the NFL draft for He additionally covers the NFL draft from a Dallas Cowboys perspective on this subReddit. And his huge board is up to date at the least as soon as per week in the course of the season and main as much as the draft.

Author: Douglas Rodriguez