You assume Philadelphia followers are upset now? Verify again in a 12 months from now – historical past says the Eagles face an uphill climb in 2023, whereas it’s all roses in Kansas Metropolis.
First, what the info says in regards to the Tremendous Bowl profitable groups:
Solely 14 out of 54 (26 p.c) Tremendous Bowl winners from 1967 to 2021 missed the playoffs the next 12 months. Meaning Kansas Metropolis stands a couple of 75 p.c probability of a minimum of making the playoffs subsequent season.
Of the 14 Tremendous Bowl-winning groups that missed the playoffs the next season, solely three (21 p.c) had a profitable file, whereas greater than three-quarters of these groups missed the playoffs with a shedding file. Accidents usually play a component in that sort of reversal of fortune.
Now, right here’s what Philadelphia faces:
Of the 54 groups that misplaced the Tremendous Bowl from 1967 to 2021, 29 (54 p.c) made the playoffs the next season.
Solely eight out of 31 (26 p.c) Tremendous Bowl losers returned to the massive sport the next 12 months. (Poor Buffalo.)
Of the 25 Tremendous Bowl-losing groups that didn’t return to the Tremendous Bowl the next 12 months, 17 (68 p.c) missed the playoffs solely. Translation: It’s virtually feast or famine subsequent season for Philadelphia, as greater than two-thirds of Tremendous Bowl-losing groups that didn’t return to the championship the next 12 months additionally didn’t make the playoffs.
4 Tremendous Bowl-losing groups had a sub-500 file the next 12 months.
So why are these statistics so skewed towards the winner?
A number of components needs to be thought of.
Begin with good ol’ luck. Wanting again, the Atlanta Falcons caught lightning in a bottle within the 2016-17 season behind quarterback Matt Ryan, who was the league’s MVP that season. Atlanta has solely had one profitable season after its historic collapse towards New England within the Tremendous Bowl.
You additionally must consider energy of schedule. Groups that win their division get the “first-place” schedule the next season for his or her non-conference video games. In principle, division winners face the more durable schedule. However Philadelphia completed second within the NFC East in 2021, which, in principle, gave them a barely simpler schedule than Dallas, which received the division the 12 months earlier than. By some metrics, Philadelphia had the second-easiest schedule within the league this previous season.
And you’ve got free company to take care of. Some discover a strategy to handle their wage cap, retool and are available again simply as sturdy. Kansas Metropolis, for instance, received all of it in 2020, misplaced it in 2021, then reshaped its offensive line earlier than profitable all of it once more this season. However many Tremendous Bowl losers take an even bigger hit the following season. For instance, the 12 months after the Oakland Raiders have been embarrassed within the Tremendous Bowl by Tampa Bay, the staff misplaced a number of huge names to free company, plus QB Wealthy Gannon missed time resulting from harm. It’s been fairly downhill for the Raiders since then.
Collectively, none of this bodes effectively for the Eagles, whose traditionally good protection may lose as many as eight part- or full-time starters in free company. General, the staff has 11 starters who’re unrestricted free brokers.
And, to not be ignored among the many losses is offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, now the Indianapolis head coach, and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, now the Arizona Cardinals head coach.
Lastly, the obvious – however essential – consider figuring out future success for the Tremendous Bowl members is whether or not they have a Corridor of Fame quarterback. Simply over 30 p.c of the shedding Tremendous Bowl QBs wound up within the Corridor of Fame, though these numbers will proceed to fluctuate (hi there Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers).
With all that mentioned, it’s arduous to examine Philadelphia falling out of rivalry subsequent season, no matter how issues play out in free company. The staff has younger, future Professional Bowl gamers at a variety of key positions and a quarterback who’s simply coming into his prime.
And don’t neglect the Eagles have two first-round draft picks.
So count on the staff to attempt to carry again a few of its older veterans on staff pleasant offers, then plug the opposite losses with premium draft picks. Feels like a method that might land them in subsequent 12 months’s Tremendous Bowl, hangover-be-damned.
1. Chicago Bears: DL Jalen Carter, Georgia
All by one of many Tremendous Bowl-winning groups the previous decade have been led by an elite quarterback, as in, the type who’s nonetheless hocking items or companies on nationally televised commercials. The lone exception was the 2017-18 Philadelphia Eagles staff that received all of it behind backup Nick Foles. One other pattern has emerged, this one on the defensive aspect: Six of these Tremendous Bowl winners additionally began an elite defensive sort out. The 2016-17 and 2018-19 New England Patriots had a strong protection total, however no Professional Bowl-types at defensive sort out. And the identical might be mentioned for the 2015-16 Denver Broncos and the 2013-14 Seattle Seahawks groups, though the primary featured a future Corridor of Fame move rusher (Von Miller), whereas the latter sported the well-known “Legion of Increase” protection. Chicago hopes it has that elite sign caller in Justin Fields, who led all quarterbacks in speeding yards by a large margin this previous season whereas ending seventh total within the league. May Georgia’s Carter be the Bears’ model of Chris Johnson or Aaron Donald?
2. Houston Texans: QB Anthony Richardson, Florida
It’s tempting to go together with Bryce Younger because of the Alabama ties he has with new head coach and former Crimson Tide linebacker DeMeco Ryans. And each Younger and C.J. Stroud of Ohio State appear well-equipped to deal with new offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik’s West Coast offense. However Slowik additionally ran a really QB-friendly and run-heavy offense whereas at San Francisco, because the 49ers didn’t ask Jimmy Garoppolo and even Brock Purdy to do greater than they have been able to whereas complementing them with an old-school, two-RB formation. Therefore, the rationale why Richardson is the choose right here. He won’t be as superior of a passer at this stage as Younger, Stroud and even Kentucky’s Wil Levis, however he’s a superior athlete and runner than the opposite three.
3. Indianapolis Colts (TRADE): QB Bryce Younger, Alabama
Why would Indianapolis commerce up one spot when it was assured of nonetheless drafting one of many high QBs? The reply lies within the groups under them like Las Vegas, Carolina and perhaps even Tennessee and Washington who could be keen to maneuver as much as No. 3 to take a QB. The Colts higher ensure they’re getting the precise man, although, as swapping picks with the Cardinals may value as a lot as a second-round choose.
4. Las Vegas Raiders (TRADE): QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
Most mock drafts have the quarterbacks unfold out extra evenly among the many first 16 picks. The rationale that may not occur is the restricted variety of first-round prospects versus the variety of groups who want a brand new signal-caller. Give it some thought: Virtually each staff after this choose may make a respectable case for drafting a quarterback. Don’t be shocked if all 4 of them are taken inside the first 10 picks.
5. Seattle Seahawks (by way of DEN): Edge Will Anderson, Alabama
Nice pickup for Seattle. The Seahawks in all probability view the NFC West as wide-open, and including a probably dominant move rusher to an already younger and enhancing protection may (or ought to?) imply a return to the playoffs.
6. Detroit Lions (by way of LAR): QB Wil Levis, Kentucky
Jared Goff has turned his profession round with the resurgent Lions, however he’ll be 29 subsequent season. He’s additionally on a reasonably team-friendly deal that expires after the 2024 season. On the price Detroit goes, the staff received’t have a shot at drafting a high QB the following few seasons. Armed with one other first-round choose, the time to draft a QB is now. Levis can study behind Goff the following few seasons. And if the Lions determine it’s time to maneuver on from Goff in 2024, they might solely incur a $5 million hit in lifeless cap cash by releasing him.
7. Arizona Cardinals (TRADE): DL Bryan Bresee, Clemson
Passing up on Anderson is extra sophisticated than it appears. Whereas he would routinely step in because the staff’s greatest move rusher, Arizona has additionally invested pretty closely within the draft lately upgrading that place. Nonetheless, the staff wants to exchange J.J. Watts, who was answerable for greater than a 3rd of the staff’s sacks in 2022. Bresee looks as if the proper substitute.
8. Atlanta Falcons: S Brian Department, Alabama
Edge gamers Tyree Wilson and Myles Murphy are tempting right here, however they could be powerful matches in Atlanta’s 3-4 protection, as each are in all probability higher suited as a defensive finish in a four-man entrance. And the staff may use one other nook to pair with A.J. Terrell, however this could be a bit excessive to take one. Texas RB Bijan Robinson might be the choose, however Tyler Allgeier is coming off a improbable rookie season during which he completed third amongst first-year RBs with 1,035 yards speeding and was considered one of three rookie RBs to crack the 1,000-yard threshold. RT Kaleb McGary is an unrestricted free agent, however it is a bit excessive to take one of many high offensive sort out prospects. That’s why Department might be the shock choose right here. Thought of one of many high defensive gamers on this draft, Department can be utilized all around the secondary and would probably lead the staff in tackles his first 12 months.
9. Carolina Panthers: RB Bijan Robinson, Texas
The unhealthy information? Carolina missed out on a QB on this state of affairs. The excellent news? The Panthers didn’t have to surrender draft picks to maneuver up. And, say what you’ll about drafting working backs excessive within the first spherical, the Panthers are conceivably taking the very best offensive participant on this draft. Having a robust floor sport ought to assist what may (ought to?) be a shaky QB scenario.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (by way of NO): CB Christian Gonzalez, Oregon
The Eagles aren’t going to lose each defensive starter in free company. Count on the staff to attempt to re-sign among the older vets like Brandon Graham, Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave. However additionally they have some younger depth alongside the defensive position. The place the staff lacks depth is within the secondary, the place James Bradberry is anticipated to go away in free company. Apart from his one notorious penalty within the Tremendous Bowl, Bradberry was probably the greatest cornerbacks within the league this previous season and was a second-team All-Professional choice.
11. Tennessee Titans: OT Paris Johnson, Ohio State
Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski has positional flexibility, however his arms are mentioned to be shorter than supreme for sort out. Georgia’s Broderick Jones additionally has positional flexibility and possesses satisfactory arm size, however he lacks supreme top for the place. That’s why Johnson is the choose right here: He’s obtained the precise measurements and may play guard.
12. Houston Texans (by way of CLE): G O’Cyrus Torrence
It could be tempting to mock an offensive sort out with this choose, however the Texans are literally set at that place. Add in left guard Kenyon Inexperienced, and Houston has three first-round picks on its offensive line. However the precise guard and middle positions are badly in want of an improve.
13. NY Jets: OT Peter Skoronski, Northwestern
Apart from a shaky quarterback scenario, the Jets don’t have many holes on both aspect of the ball – however they may use upgrades at left guard and proper sort out. Skoronski may begin at both place.
14. New England Patriots: OT Broderick Jones, Georgia
New England is nearer to rivalry than folks understand, however the staff can’t have a dropoff alongside the offensive line if Isaiah Wynn leaves in free company.
15. Inexperienced Bay Packers: TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame
Robert Tonyan has turned himself right into a dependable starter after going undrafted in 2017 out of Indiana State. Mayer needs to be even higher.
16. Washington Commanders: CB Kelee Ringo, Georgia
Philadelphia began it off with the collection of Gonzalez, however that is the place you’ll begin to see the primary wave of cornerbacks fly off the board. And so they’re all ranked across the similar vary. In response to the newest Fanspeak-Jake Rigdon huge board, six CBs are ranked within the high 32, 19 within the high 64 and 16 within the high 100. It mainly comes all the way down to what taste of ice cream you want greatest.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: CB Deonte Banks, Maryland
It’s tempting to go together with the Porter Sr.-Jr. for nostalgic causes, however Pittsburgh has drafted extra gamers from Maryland since 2016 than every other faculty. This could be their fifth.
18, Detroit Lions: TE Darnell Washington, Georgia
Darnell Washington had an NFL physique by the age of 8. That’s a joke, after all, but it surely underscores simply how huge and highly effective Washington is, as he serves as a sixth offensive lineman on the staff. And he can catch. Looks like the proper Dan Campbell prospect.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama
Certain, the staff will probably must discover a substitute for CB Jamel Dean, and who is aware of how lengthy the Kyle Trask period will final at QB. And with Leonard Fournette’s future cloudy, Gibbs is a big-play menace who would instantly add velocity to an offense that wants it.
20. Seattle Seahawks: CB Joey Porter Jr., Penn State
Seattle doesn’t have too many wants on protection, particularly if it will probably nab Alabama’s Anderson, however a nook reverse of tremendous rookie Tariq Woolen might be fairly excessive on the Seahawks’ draft want checklist.
21. Miami Dolphins: Forfeited
22, LA Chargers: WR Jordan Addison, USC
The Chargers could also be transferring on from Keenan Allen, and even when they maintain him, they nonetheless want extra velocity on offense. Addison takes care of each these wants. Addison begins off the primary, however quick, wave of receivers to go off the board.
23. Baltimore Ravens: WR Quentin Johnston, TCU
Johnston’s dimension, velocity and work ethic aren’t in query, however some marvel about his route tree and occasional drops that might drop him out of the top-20.
24. Minnesota Vikings: CB Devon Witherspoon, Illinois
Witherspoon is capturing up many mock drafts, going as excessive as No. 6 total in ESPN’s Matt Miller’s mock draft, however the corners drafted forward of him on this mock are a bit greater. Witherspoon may simply as simply go as CB-1 on this draft, too.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars: CB Cam Jonson, South Carolina
Jacksonville is reportedly hoping to return away from this draft with a minimum of one cornerback to pair with future star Tyson Campbell.
26. NY Giants: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
The final of the first-wave of receivers, JSN led the Buckeyes receivers in receptions and yards in 2021 on a staff that featured two first-round receivers, however he was restricted this previous season with a lingering hamstring harm. If he can keep wholesome, this choose may flip right into a steal.
27. Dallas Cowboys: Edge Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
Prospects like Wilson, Myles Murphy, Zach Harrison and Keion White aren’t a scheme-fit for each staff, and it’s their elite dimension that’s the issue. Groups may really feel their pass-rushing expertise can be wasted as a 5-tech defensive finish however would query whether or not they have sufficient agility to play outdoors linebacker in a 3-4 protection. Dallas, however, usually operates out of a 4-defensive line entrance, however defensive finish might be the least of their considerations with Micah Parsons (who’s a move rusher masquerading as an inside linebacker), veterans DeMarcus Lawrence and Dorance Armstrong and intriguing 2022 second-rookie Sam Williams. Nevertheless, Wilson is the highest-ranked remaining participant nonetheless on the board and too good of a prospect to move up this late within the draft.
28. Buffalo Payments: OT Darnell Wright, Tennessee
Buffalo hasn’t taken an offensive participant within the first spherical (or with their first choose) since drafting QB Josh Allen in 2018. Much more surprising? Allen is the one starter for Buffalo who was a first-round choose.
29. Cincinnati Bengals: Edge Myles Murphy, Clemson
Like Wilson in Dallas, Cincinnati has greater wants than Murphy – and if Wright continues to be on the board, the staff may draft him as an alternative. However, additionally like Wilson in Dallas, Murphy is simply too good of a prospect to move up at this level.
30. New Orleans Saints (by way of DEN): Edge Lukas Van Ness, Iowa
See picks 27 and 29. All three of those move rushers may go within the top-15 simply as simply, so this could be an amazing worth for New Orleans at this level within the first spherical.
31. Philadelphia Eagles: S Antonio Johnson, Texas A&M
Johnson may simply as simply be the right here within the second spherical, as his rankings are everywhere amongst draft analysts. However the Eagles may lose C.J. Gardner-Johnson to free company, so this could be an amazing pickup at a friendlier worth than signing a big-name security in free company.
Los Angeles Rams, second spherical: QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
Cleveland Browns, second spherical: DL Karl Brooks, Bowling Inexperienced
Miami Dolphins, second spherical: RB Tyjae Spears, Tulane
Denver, third spherical: OT Tyler Steen, Alabama
San Francisco, third spherical: CB Jaylon Jones, Texas A&M
Jake Rigdon (@jrigdon73) covers the NFL draft for Fanspeak.com. He additionally covers the NFL draft from a Dallas Cowboys perspective on this subReddit. And his huge board is up to date a minimum of as soon as per week throughout the season and main as much as the draft.